As the legislation on the reduction of Saturday morning, Republicans are preparing to use inflated deficits aggravated by the package as a reason to pursue their long-standing vision of defeating the rights of the New Deal and the Big Society, leaving the government leaner and safer [19459005
President Paul D. Ryan and other Republicans begin to express their big dreams publicly, promising that next year they will move to changes in health insurance and social security . President Trump said at a rally in Missouri last week: "We will begin welfare reform."
Their package of tax cuts of nearly $ 1.5 trillion could be approved in the coming days. the first step. But their strategy poses enormous risks, not only for the millions of Americans who depend on welfare programs, but also for Republicans who take refuge in politically difficult waters, reducing social benefits for the elderly and the working poor. ]
"The way to settle the debt is to give the impression that everyone is ready to put something on the table," said Maya MacGuineas, Chair of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a group bipartisan. "Once you have a side to grab everything that he can, you will never see the other side."
Even though the tax cut triggers the kind of economic growth announced by Republicans, the tax bill He added that the deficit had increased by $ 1 trillion over 10 years, said the Joint Committee on Taxation of the Congress
which proposed nothing to the Democrats and left them no obligation or obligation to negotiate reductions. to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, rights programs that increase spending, but are also the pride of the Democratic Party.
For his part, Mr. Trump spent his campaign promising not to cut Medicare and Social Security. And Republicans will likely find, as they did when they failed to repeal the Affordable Care Act, that the public is rising to defend programs that they are trying to reduce . Republicans will find that Democrats treat this tax bill as Republicans have treated Obamacare – this is not the trust of people on the other side of "said former Senator Judd Gregg , who was chairman of the Budget Committee and a member of the Simpson-Bowles Commission, a bipartisan group of legislators and budget experts who developed a deficit reduction plan in 2010. "It will become a target, a cry of rallying, which is unfortunate, because a good tax reform, if done well, is not only good for the economy, but also for the parties.
Several natural allies of the Republicans criticized the bill for adding to the deficit and not coping with the costs that were already driving up the government's red ink. In a Washington Post editorial, the leaders of this 2010 commission, former Senator Alan Simpson of Wyoming, a Republican, and Erskine Bowles, a Democrat who is a former White House chief of staff, accuse Republicans of "deficit denial". "Republicans have been saying for years that they wanted to come to power to balance the budget, reduce debt, cut spending and repair rights," said Ms. MacGuineas. "They made it harder , no easier. "
For weeks, Democrats and their allies have accused Republicans of a" two-step "deception, warning that they would reduce taxes now and then Use
"When you have accumulated the deficit, your next argument will be," You have a big deficit, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont., a former Democratic presidential candidate, said in an interview.
Now the Republicans are starting to recognize as much.Mr Ryan said at a town hall style meeting last month that Congress needed to spur growth and reduce rights to reduce the country's debt.
The Republican Tax Plan, he said "" But , he added, "we have a lot of work to do to reduce spending."
Senator Marco Rubio of Florida was more specific Wednesday, telling business leaders that cuts tax was just the first step, the next is to reshape social security and health insurance for future retirees.
"Many argue that you can not reduce taxes because that it will drive up the deficit, "he said." But we have to do two things. We need to generate economic growth that generates revenue while reducing spending. It means instituting structural changes to Social Security and Medicare for the future. "
The Congressional Budget Office provides that spending on social security, Medicare and Medicaid will cost the federal government $ 28.6 trillion until 2027. The tax cut, estimated at nearly $ 1.5 trillion, only aggravates the problem.
But if this boost to the government's financial chasm is relatively minimal, it could be much more political s'. it moves away the Democrats From the negotiating table
And even if the Republicans do not seek to change the rights, the tax bill will trigger payment obligations as the Congress cuts This would be a particularly hard blow for Medicare, which would face a $ 25 billion reduction for the current fiscal year.Groups like AARP, the lobby of older Americans, are warning that it will force have doctors and hospitals refuse patients because reimbursements would be considerably reduced
. Ryan and Kentucky senator Mitch McConnell, the leader of the majority, issued a statement Friday saying that the so-called cuts in pay will not happen because Congress would renounce the law, as it did in the past. But they will need Democratic votes to do so, in an exceptionally partisan climate.
Regardless of whether Republicans can give up these cuts, David Certner, Legislative Counsel for AARP, said, "You know they're going to come back and say," We need to make more cuts to deal with growing debts and shortfalls. "
Some loss-making hawks complain that Republicans have rejected tax liability.
Robert L. Bixby, the executive director of the Concord Coalition, a non-partisan organization that promotes fiscal responsibility, complained of the hypocrisy of Republicans who are calling for the lifting of the ceilings of spending created by the Budget Control Act of 2011.
If tax cuts do not generate the income that Republicans expect, he predicted, "People will say," No we will not get growth because we should have cut taxes even further. "
The United States is already facing a dark fiscal landscape. The federal deficit reached $ 660 billion this year, despite strong economic growth, and the national debt now exceeds $ 20 trillion. Janet L. Yellen, the outgoing president of the Federal Reserve, appointed by President Barack Obama, warned last week that the national debt "is the kind of thing that should keep people from sleeping at night."
But Democrats and their allies – and even some of the usual Republican allies – complain that Republicans are dishonest not to debate changes in spending and tax cuts at the same time, as 39, made the Simpson-Bowles Commission
the Left Center on Budgetary and Policy Priorities, said Republicans understood how bad it would be to reduce food benefits for poor families and health care for the elderly at the same time as they were cutting taxes for businesses and higher incomes.
"There is a reason why they separate them," she said. "They think they can get out of it."
But during an election year with a high political commitment, she said: "I think it is wrong to count the idea that the public will understand it. "